Global stock markets once again demonstrated remarkable resilience in a week headlined by rising government borrowing costs, geopolitical tensions, and renewed inflation concerns from higher energy prices.

US Equities Push Toward Record Highs

US equities were supported by technology shares and optimism around AI-related growth — the blue-chip S&P 500 and technology-focused Nasdaq indices gained 1.15% and 0.64% respectively, just shy of the all-time highs reached earlier in the week.

Highlights within the tech sector included SpaceX’s 8% gain to $171 per share on Monday, boosted by Morgan Stanley reiterating its overweight rating and $300 price target. Analysts at the investment bank argue that the market is undervaluing the company’s growth potential, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) computing, when compared with other large technology companies. They expect the upcoming Starship Flight 15 in late October or early November to be the biggest positive since its IPO in June, as a successful test would demonstrate progress towards catching and reusing the spacecraft — strengthening the case for dramatically lower launch costs and greater launch capacity. Analyst Adam Jones added that SpaceX’s AI and computing operations could become a significant source of earnings, alongside its established launch and Starlink businesses, with Starlink giving the company an existing connectivity business while its launch operations provide capabilities competitors would find difficult and expensive to replicate.

The gains in SpaceX were joined by a bounce in Tesla shares following a report that it had delivered 486,532 vehicles in the three months to the end of September — its best quarter since the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit last year — pushing Elon Musk’s estimated wealth through $1 trillion.

A Wrinkle in the AI Narrative

There was some volatility within the tech sector later in the week, triggered by a Financial Times report indicating that OpenAI’s annualised revenue of approximately $50 billion to the end of September was $20 billion lower than had previously been reported. The discrepancy arose from attempts by OpenAI’s investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic’s annualised revenues — the pair calculate the figure in different ways, with Anthropic including revenue from sales via cloud partners such as Amazon’s AWS and Google Cloud, while OpenAI does not.

France’s Bond Troubles Deepen

Away from company news, rising government bond yields remained a key area of concern, with French 10-year OATs hitting 4.9% — the highest level since 2002. Whilst France faces similar challenges to other western countries, namely surging government debt, higher inflation, and structurally lower economic growth, its political situation and lack of consensus over its 2027 budget have made its debt an easy target for the bond vigilantes.

The minority government of Sébastien Lecornu has put forward a 2027 budget with an additional EUR 43 billion in spending cuts and tax rises to bring the deficit down to 5% of GDP, but investors do not think it is enough to put France back onto a path towards fiscal sustainability. The government expects interest costs to rise to EUR 63 billion this year, and to reach EUR 91 billion in 2027 — much more than it spends on education or defence. Opposition leaders from both sides of the political spectrum have vowed to block the budget in its current form, raising fears of another government collapse ahead of next year’s presidential elections.

Commodities: Oil and Gold Both Rise

In commodity markets, Brent crude rose to $104 a barrel following renewed threats to oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and Hurricane Isaias forced a shutdown of more than 70% of US offshore crude production on Friday — equivalent to 1.3 million barrels per day. Gold (+1.3%) had its best week since mid-August as investors turned to precious metals to hedge risk, rather than using traditional safe-haven government bonds.

What to Watch This Week

Looking ahead, corporate earnings will come back into focus as the third-quarter reporting season kicks off in earnest, starting with the major Wall Street investment banks on Tuesday. A day later, the US CPI inflation report for September will also be closely watched for clues over how far and fast the Federal Reserve will need to increase interest rates.

This Week in the Portfolios

What Happened? Markets remained resilient despite higher government borrowing costs, geopolitical tensions, and renewed inflation concerns. US equities advanced, supported by technology and AI-related optimism, while oil and gold rose as investors responded to supply disruption and geopolitical risk. Balanced returned +0.38%, marginally ahead of its benchmark by +0.03%. Growth gained +0.30% but lagged its benchmark by 0.33%, while Conservative declined 0.63%, underperforming by 0.77%. Year to date, Conservative and Growth remain ahead of their respective benchmarks.

Why We Were Positioned This Way The three funds express the same diversified investment philosophy at different risk levels. Current positioning combines selective equity exposure with real assets and alternatives, while Conservative and Balanced retain greater defensive capacity. TEAM continues to avoid relying on long-dated government bonds for traditional portfolio protection, favouring shorter-duration fixed income, selected credit, and diversifying assets. Energy exposure is intended to provide ballast against supply shocks, while gold and mining exposure reflects concerns over government indebtedness and constrained real-asset supply.

What TEAM Is Doing TEAM is maintaining a barbell approach across the three funds: participating selectively in US and global technology, including the broader AI supply chain, while retaining international, value, and real-asset exposures. Healthy cash levels in the lower- and medium-risk mandates provide flexibility to add risk when prospective returns improve, rather than reacting to short-term market strength.

What We’re Watching Third-quarter US earnings and September inflation data are the immediate tests. Bond yields, oil-supply risks, and whether AI investment continues to translate into corporate earnings are also being monitored closely. These developments will guide the balance between growth exposure, diversifiers, and capital preservation across each risk profile.

At NEBA Private Clients, we continue to track these developments closely on behalf of our clients, helping ensure portfolios remain appropriately positioned as earnings season, inflation data, and fiscal pressures in Europe evolve.

This article is based on insights and analysis provided by Andrew Gillham of TEAM.